Asteroid 2012 DA14: Deciphering NASA’s research on a possible impact
As we dig into all available information on Asteroid 2012 D14, we discover how NASA and the Near Earth Orbit Program NEOP handle possible earth impacts by reading the all important “legal” disclaimer posted on their impact calculation page.
The calculation of impact probability involves the disciplines of orbital dynamics, estimation theory, and numerical analysis. The orbit of a comet or asteroid is determined from a set of observations (right ascension/declination coordinates). The observations are typically accurate to 0.5 arc-sec, although this can vary somewhat according to the pixel size used in the CCD detectors: some observatories have only 1.0 arc-sec accuracy. Because there are some errors in the observations, there will be uncertainties in the orbital determination for the object. The uncertainty in the orbital elements also depends on the number of observations and the time span over which they are made. The more observations we have, and the longer the time span, the less the uncertainties will be, and the more precise the orbit will become. Thus, for a newly discovered object, the uncertainties tend to be large initially. As more observations are obtained on the object’s position, the uncertainties are reduced, and any potential impacts are then eventually eliminated for the vast majority of the cases.
Asteroid 2012d14 is the first Asteroid in our lifetime to possibly come within a distance equal to a one day’s drive (from Los Angeles, Ca. to Oklahoma City in distance). Why then – if the above disclaimer describes the need for “length of time” and “repeated” observations as the scientific method for calculating these possible impacts, is the one and only “documented” impact study over a year old and only 11.49 days long?
You would think we could afford an additional monthly study or two or even simple curiosity would show a monthly re-evaluation?
To best study this event yourself we have attached every possible research site below:
What day will Asteroid DA14 come by earth?
2012 DA14 (d14) will pass very close to Earth on February 15, 2013. Astronomers estimate that, when it’s closest to us, NASA’s most recent estimates claim the asteroid will be about 17,000 miles from us.
This story was broken by RT with their interview of Dr. Dunham from NASA who spoke these chilling words in the interview….
“The Earth’s gravitational field will alter the asteroid’s path significantly. Further scrupulous calculation is required to estimate the threat of collision,” said Dr. Dunham, as transcribed by Russia’s Izvestia. “The asteroid may break into dozens of small pieces, or several large lumps may split from it and burn up in the atmosphere. The type of the asteroid and its mineral structure can be determined by spectral analysis. This will help predict its behavior in the atmosphere and what should be done to prevent the potential threat,” said Dr. Dunham.
NEWS FLASH – VIDEO FROM RUSSIA showing the destruction from just a few FRAGMENTS of an asteroid as artistically shown above.
SCROLL TO BOTTOM OF PAGE FOR VIDEO
On the positive side, Even if this rock were to hit us, it is not an earth ending size asteroid, Asteroid 2012d14 would only carry the explosive power of a medium size nuclear weapon. Even if it were to hit our planet, life as we know it will continue for most of earth’s inhabitants.
For those who may be in its direct path?
Lets hope that NASA begins to publish their additional impact research studies so that we may all be a little better informed.
Our real worries should be for the Asteroid Apothos (Destruction) which eerily will be narrowly missing us in 2029. It will then make a more dangerous return on 2036! an interesting 7 years later. These two years just happen to be the Key Dates of my Godtype research. Please visit Godtype.com
Think about it? a 1600 mile near miss on our earth’s trailing side is a near miss akin to the width of a human hair. A 1600 mile near miss in front of earth’s path is equivalent to the destructive meteor that skipped across earth atmosphere in Russia’s Tunguska event of 1908.
Milton Thomas X